December 2009 to March 2010
The base camp in our nomadic life has always been Hyderabad, India. Hyderabad is home turf. It has been our resting ground for a battery re-charge during the brief interludes between countries and jobs. This time, during my stay in Hyderabad, before leaving to Geneva to join my husband, I had something more in my agenda – the building of analyzeVietnam.
The launch date of analyzeVietnam was therefore dictated by the arrival of my visa to Switzerland. Having applied for my visa in late November 2009 I worried that I would have to leave by early 2010 leaving my project in the lurch (the Swiss rules dictate that one has to travel to the country within a month of procuring visa in order to apply for ones residence permit). However thankfully the Swiss authorities delayed my visa till March 2010. After 4 months of emails from and to my agent and the embassy, endless attestations and authorisations my visa finally arrived and I was scheduled to travel mid march. During these 4 months we worked overtime, believing that each week was to be our last and thanking our stars for each week of borrowed time that we got from the Swiss embassy.
The site was completed and officially handed to me for customer testing a day before I travelled to Geneva.
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Forecasting
January 2010
“Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back window.” Anonymous
If one was to ask what was the most challanging part of building analyzeVietnam the easy answer would be forecasting.
It was not until January 2010 that we had all the historical data ready and some important decisions to make. What do we forecast using historical data and what do we forecast using projections made by international bodies? Do we use inflation or GDP growth rate to forecast income and consumption expenditure? How do we deal with differences in the projections released by various bodies? – These were only some of the questions that we had to grapple with.
We mulled over this till our hairs greyed and we consulted experts and statisticians. Finally we arrived at our decisions with the proviso that we would clearly publish whatever methodology we used for all to see.
But this was just half the problem solved. Our next challenge was to make sure that all our projected numbers made sense top down and bottom up and that the forecast country values were in synch with the projections made by the Vietnamese government and other world bodies. Given that the site was number driven we had to make sure that the data was credible and that it added up to the last decimal.
We understand that the 10 years of forecast that we provide is only a value-add to the range of features that we provide in analyzeVietnam. We also understand that it is no way a firm prediction but only an indicator of what the future is likely to be based on past trends. Given its small significance did we spend undue effort on forecasting? Maybe. But then it was all part of making analyzeVietnam a truly rounded tool and one of a kind
“Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back window.” Anonymous
If one was to ask what was the most challanging part of building analyzeVietnam the easy answer would be forecasting.
It was not until January 2010 that we had all the historical data ready and some important decisions to make. What do we forecast using historical data and what do we forecast using projections made by international bodies? Do we use inflation or GDP growth rate to forecast income and consumption expenditure? How do we deal with differences in the projections released by various bodies? – These were only some of the questions that we had to grapple with.
We mulled over this till our hairs greyed and we consulted experts and statisticians. Finally we arrived at our decisions with the proviso that we would clearly publish whatever methodology we used for all to see.
But this was just half the problem solved. Our next challenge was to make sure that all our projected numbers made sense top down and bottom up and that the forecast country values were in synch with the projections made by the Vietnamese government and other world bodies. Given that the site was number driven we had to make sure that the data was credible and that it added up to the last decimal.
We understand that the 10 years of forecast that we provide is only a value-add to the range of features that we provide in analyzeVietnam. We also understand that it is no way a firm prediction but only an indicator of what the future is likely to be based on past trends. Given its small significance did we spend undue effort on forecasting? Maybe. But then it was all part of making analyzeVietnam a truly rounded tool and one of a kind
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